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Monday, April 6, 2020

Corona virus destroys India's economy and government aid package is insufficient



Mohammad Alam is one of thousands of people lined up to distribute food in India's capital Delhi.
In the factory where he worked, it closed after Prime Minister Modi announced a 21-day lockdown to stop the spread of the Corona virus.
As a day laborer, they have no income. That is why they are forced to come to the government-established food centers. 'I don't know how I will survive. I have to borrow to support my family. '
Neeraj Kumar had left his house and returned to work. In view of Lockdown, they decided to leave the city.
Public transport from cities was blocked and then people had no choice but to walk.
When we spoke to Neeraj, he, his wife, and their 10-year-old daughter had already walked 40 km. 'There is no work left here. That's why we're going from here. There are no buses. I have to walk 260 km and reach my village now. '
India has announced a $ 23 billion aid package for people like Mohammad Alam and Neeraj Kumar. Such people are part of the unorganized informal economy of India, where 94% of the country's people work and 45% of the country's production.
'Nobody will be allowed to go hungry'
The domestic economy is already in trouble and thousands of people have become unemployed due to the lockdown.
Announcing the package, the finance minister of the country, Narmala Sattarman, had said that 'no one will be allowed to go hungry'. This package includes direct cash transfers and food security measures.
Yet the economic burden of this immense lockdown remains high. Businesses are closing, unemployment is rising and production is dropping.
Corona Virus: Passenger Rush at New Delhi's Bus Station
Production engine in India was stopping before the outbreak of Corona. India, one of the fastest growing economies at one time, also had a cumulative growth rate of 4.7 percent last year, the lowest in the last six years.
Unemployment has reached its highest level in the past 45 years. Production in the 8 central industrial sectors has declined by 5.2%, which is the worst performance in the last 14 years. Small businesses were just recovering from the shock of the controversial currency law of 2016. Experts now wish the Corona virus would destroy India's fragile economy.
Although many are welcoming government action, most of them believe that the government should do more so that the burden of economic loss can be lifted.
Economist Arn Kumar says, "Even though free ration has been announced, how will the poor and ration get access to it?"
"The government should use the military and state machine to ensure food is reached to the poor."
He says that where thousands of day laborers are trapped miles away from their homes, sharing money and food in the best way should be the government's top priority.
And it's not just workers trapped away from their homes who are in danger right now.
This lockdown can also cause serious damage to farmers. The agriculture sector contributes $ 265 billion to the Indian economy.
The government says it will pay 2,000 Indian rupees (about US $ 30) to farmers in April and US $ 80 a year so that they can cope with the situation.
Arn Kumar says: 'These money is insufficient. Due to the reduction in exports, prices in cities will go up and fall in villages as farmers will not be able to sell crops. '
The epidemic spreads at a crucial time. There is a window ready for fresh harvesting.
Experts say that during the lockdown, the government will face difficulties in delivering crops from the villages to the cities.
If the supply chain does not work properly, a lot of food will be lost and farmers will suffer a lot.
Meanwhile, experts say India stands on the brink of a major unemployment problem.
But that's not the only story.
India's aviation industry will also suffer due to aviation flights.
The Center for Asia-Pacific Aviation estimates that India's aviation industry will lose $ 4 billion this year.
And then there will be problems for the hotel industry, tourism industry, restaurants. Hotels all over the country are empty and will remain for several months, raising concerns that people will lose their jobs.
The car industry is expected to lose $ 2 billion.
So is India's relief package enough for all this? Experts say it's the equivalent of a drop in a bucket.

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